KLCI all time high

As mentioned in the post on Thursday, KLCI actually made a break through of the 1400 mark on Monday in conjunction with the announcement of the ECER to close at the all time high of 1411.62, cheers! Malaysia Boleh! KLCI lagi Boleh!

As for Tuesday, the market opened with joy for the first 10 minutes and CI registered another intra day record high of 1416.97, thereafter the market goes into profit taking mode and CI corrected downward to the low of 1404.48, and remain in a sideway range for most part of the day, finally closed the day at 1412.79 (+1.17, +0.08%), a record high close. Volume reduce slightly to 1.8 billion shares traded, which is healthy.

Technically speaking, KLCI forms a Spinning Top candlestick yesterday, this indicates the market is a bit hesitant to move further at this level, in conjunction with DJIA's fall, the market may take excuse to profit take and further corrects downward to the 1398 level. The retail investors are getting smarter, they will take profit first whenever the market makes new high, as the saying, "A bird in hand is better than ten in the bush", money in your pocket makes you feel better.

Most of the stocks that we follow are doing well, BHIC, Landmark, Pohkong, Kretam, Unico are making new high, cheers! I am sure many of our friends are having sweet dream. However, always be on the guard, never let Greed over-rule, just follow the market signals, don't predict.

Some of the new stock to watch are MPHB, INCKEN.

Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author may have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action.

Here we come 1400!

KLCI had a steady performance on last Friday to close at all time high of 1398.35, up 20.08 points. Volume traded was healthy with 1.9 billion shares changed hand. Here we come 1400 which is just 2 points away and is within reach today.

The rise was led by the plantation sector with IOICorp (+0.60) and KLK (+0.50) leading the way. The strong performance of the plantation sector is fueled by the rising crude oil price. Some of the plantation counter worth watching are TWSPLNT, IJMPLNT, KMLOONG, KRETAM, CEPAT, AASIA and UNICO.

Some of the other stocks that may offer trading opportunities for the coming week are Sunway, Lionind, Lioncor, Pmetal, MMM, YTLe, and Online

(Click to enlarge)

Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author may have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action.

Sentiment improving

KLSE started the day with a cautious mood with CI opened at 1361.45, up 1.62 point from previous close. Thereafter, CI moved north steadily to close the day at 1378.27 with 504 gainers versus 319 losers, and volume was healthy at 1.5 billion shares. This indicates market sentiment is gradually improving from the "Black Monday" fear. As mentioned previously, this kind of fear driven fall is usually make used by the "Big-boys" to drive the market down to collect shares at lower price. For those who understand this, Monday was a good time to pick quality stocks at discount. The rest are history.

(Click to enlarge)

Looking forward, where is our market heading? CI is just 14 points away from the all time high of 1392 registered on 24th July 2007, so near yet so far. However, I am confident that CI will breach this target very soon, maybe in conjunction with the launch of the ECER. Whatever it is, it is all in the control of the "hidden-hand", what we retailers concerned most is which stock is going to move higher.

Let's take a look at some of the stocks that we have been trend tracking. The star performer is Magna, with a hefty rise of 1.60 from 2.90 since 9 Oct. For those who caught this counter, cheers! Maybulk, KNM, BJLand, BJCorp, Sunway, Icapital, Sweejoo, Unico are still in a good uptrend.

IOICorp, BHIC, Landmrk, Suria, Sarawak, Pohkong, Kretam, Jaks, Dataprp are into short term consolidation with uptrend intact.

Suncity, KPS, Ranhill, Complet, KUB, AMDB, MUIIND, Idaman, HWGB, are into sideway consolidation mode.

Today, the active stocks are made up of many Red-label (PN17) counters such as Putera, Tanco, Ekran, FCW, Megan, Talam, Suninfra, just to name a few. This indicates that the syndicates are again active, trying to get the small fish into their net. Some of them have good short term trend and one can trade them for the very short term (T+1), however, my advice is that if your "Kung-fu" is no good, or still half-pass-six, you better avoid them as your opponent is the Big-alligator that will swallow you like a piece of "Dim-sum". If you don't know how alligator catch their prey, I suggest you go and watch them on Animal Planet.

Some of the new additions to our trending stock family are Alam, AZRB, and VADS. Stocks that experience good trend change from sideway to uptrend are TChong, UBG and Fututec. However, TChong and UBG already show sign of weakness, Fututec's volume is on the low side, the trend change is not very convincing, could be make-up.








Sunway has just cross convincingly over the resistance of 1.99, and BJCorp is also trying similar attempt, worth watching.

Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author may have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action.

危机 = Opportunity hidden in a crisis

DJIA on last Friday fell 367 points (-2.6%) to closed at 13522 has caused almost all major markets worldwide to open with a gap down on Monday. A repetition of "Black Monday". The KLSE opened at 1349, down 21 points, and registered a low1339.36 within the first 10 minutes, thereafter, the CI rebounded and moved gradually upward within a tight band, and closed the day at high of 1350.81 (-19.36 points, -1.41%), the mildest fall among regional markets.

The market actions of KLCI formed a hammer on the CI chart. This shows that the fall was actually caused by panic of investors for a short moment only, and the buying support was good, hence, managed to bring CI up above the opening price. There were many who actually sees this as a opportunity in a crisis to collect quality stocks at discount.

Some of the strongly trending stocks that we are following, such as IOICorp, BHIC, Maybulk, KNM, Kretam, Unico, Icapital, BJCorp offers good opportunity for collection at lower price.

Idaman shows a strong bullish reversal.

(KLCI - daily, click to enlarge)

(KLCI 5 minutes chart)

Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author may have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action.

Mixed Market

The local stock market yesterday started the day with a short joyful moment, CI was positive until 10 am, thereafter it went into the red territory for the rest of the day and at last minute the CI closed at 1374.39, up 2.01 point. Our CI is always good at performing last minute magic show, good job. This is important to keep the investors' confidence of the local market, as most people like to see the market up so that they can sleep soundly. In actual fact, the CI has been in a selling pressure mode due to investors cashing out on the Synergy Drive related counters (many are CI link stocks), as well as news that India's authority was intervening their stock market, record high oil price and a renewed fear of the subprime credit issues, brings fear of a repetition of the 1987 October 19 crash.

If at all the crash does happen, what should you do? Sell everything and keep your money underneath your pillow. If one is really fearful of that will happen, he (she) should sell before this Friday, wait and see the market will crash on that day or not, if the crash didn’t happen, buy everything back five minutes before market close. Some may say, I’ll lose on commission, no, that is called insurance premium. If the crash does happen, you can sleep soundly and look for bargain / discounts while watching the stocks fall. Is this a good idea? It is really up to you and depends on your trading plan.

Back to our market, it was a mixed market with 444 gainers against 409 losers. Some stocks were under selling pressures, and some did a good show. Idaman, was one of the good performer. Unico also did well. Kretam shows a good up trend. The other stocks that show a probable trend change are Dataprp and HWGB. Dataprp is worth watching as it has been lifted off the PN17 rank.

(Click to enlarge chart)

Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author may have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action.

History repeats itself?

Over the past one week KLCI has been trapped within a narrow range of 1360 to 1383. Despite heavy delivery due on Wednesday and Thursday, market is able to absord the selling quite well, and Friday was a quiet day with a bit of selling ahead of the Raya holiday.

(Click to enlarge chart)

Regional market, especially HKSE, SSE, STI and JKSE has been making new high since the 17 Aug crash. The KLSE, however, is lagging behind these markets despite the many good news announced by the government. What is the market waiting for? Probably some new stimulus after Raya for that 20 points gain to breach 1400 on CI; or the market is actually having a fear of the 20th anniversary of the 19 October 1987 "Black Monday Crash", where DJI fell a hefty 508 points in a single day (or equivalent to 22% of the market capitalization then), hence CI is hesitant to move forward due to the fear of history repeats itself? However, this is anybody's guess.

The trigger for the 1987 stock market crash were the devaluation of US Dollar and the dafault in payment of the high risk and high interest "rubbish" grade bond; the situation today with the subprime credit problem and the continued devaluation of the greenback brings memory back to the past event, hence, the talk or forecast by some that the coming week, especially Friday 19 Oct 2007 is an important date to watch. However, my view is that the fear is actually more of a psychological one.

Those who practices technical analysis should know that one of the important tenets of technical analysis is "history repeats itself", this often shown well on the chart with some of the classical chart patterns such as head-and-shoulder, double top and even the candlesticks patterns such as shooting star, evening star, bearish engulfing, etc, where one is almost certain what is going to happen to the market next when one sees them, as history always repeat itself due to crowd psychology and the emotions called greed and fear. So, is the market going to celebrate the 20th anniversary by replaying the same show? Let's watch.

Coming back to our local stock market, there are actually plenty of opportunities if one is able to identify them. Some of the trending stocks that we identified earlier are still in strong uptrend position, i.e. BHIC, PPedana, Landmrk, Magna, Maybulk, BJland, BJCorp, JAKS, Sweejoo, and Complet. Some of the new additions to the trending stock family are Suria, Sunway, and Unico. Muiind and AMDB, despite the profit taking correction, the uptrend is still intact.

Ranhill, Scomi, and Mudajya are some of those counters which has recently corrected in price with the major trend still up.

Idaman is probably going through a short term trend change with strong upward bias.

Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author may have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action.

Market Trend - KLCI rebounded but weak

KLCI open with a gap up at 1375.03 points, up 5.64 points in response to overnight DJIA's gain of 120 points. However, the upward momentum of CI only lasted for about an hour and the market runs into profit taking after 10.00 am, and lasted throughout the whole day with a last 5 minutes effort to bring the CI up to close at 1376.93, registering a gain of 7.54 points. Market breadth registered 414 gainers and 445 decliners. On the daily chart, CI still trapped within a sideway range. The candlesticks show a small body candle with a longer upper shadow which indicates the upward momentum was suppressed. In view of the heavy delivery of Monday's volume on Thursday, it is expected that the market will further consolidate downward toward the 1350 area.

(click to enlarge)

However, some individual stocks are performing well, BHIC was up 0.44, closed at 5.10; Maybulk was up 0.30 with a strong breakout hitting an all time high of 4.82 and closed at 4.78. PPedana was up 0.22 at 4.24. These stocks and a few others, e.g. Bursa, KNM, Suncity are really showing the true nature of "The strong will become even stronger" and the true spirit of strongly trending stocks.



On the lower liners, as expected, Muiind and AMDB undergoes a correction due to heavy profit taking, which was anticipated from the shooting star candle formed on Monday. However, their overall trend is still intact.

Based on chart and technical analysis, Sweejoo and Complet both have good upside potential and is worth watching.



Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action

KLCI making a turn.

Dear friends,

I am sure many of you have a fruitful profit taking day today, especially on counters such as BJCorp, Jaks, Landmrk, etc.

As pointed out during our meeting last Saturday, based on the Candlesticks reversal signals, KLCI has gone into a profit taking mode and actually formed a bearish engulfing candle with long upper shadow today. The KLCI is expected to continue with the correction for the next few days as the market is expecting heavy delivery of shares on Wednesday and Thursday ( a result of heavy volume traded on last Friday, 2 Billion shares, and Today, 2.1 Billion shares).

For those of you who are holding speculative stocks, do consider to lock in your profit while you still have them. However, the speculative stocks may still be active while CI corrects. KLCI may correct down to 1350 level to close the Gap formed on 2/10/07, which is considered healthy correction after more than 90 points gain running from 1290 level since 19/9/07.

As for our study stock, BHIC, Landmrk, BJCorp are performing very well, BJCorp may run into serious overbought condition, and you can lock in some profit first if you have bought it at the 60 - 70 cents level.

Jaks has formed a Shooting Star today, many have taken profit today, if you have not, perhaps do it tomorrow morning.

MUIIND has a go run up over the last 2 days, however, it is also forming a Shooting Star candle today with exteme high volume, a sign of distribution, take your profit first if u have the counter.

Some of the counters worth watching for short term trading are AMDB, Pilecon, AKN; for medium term position trade, BHIC, Landmrk, Sunway, Sarawak, Magna, Pohkong, PPedana and KPS are worth watching.

(Double click on the chart to enlarge it)







Disclaimer: The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell, all suggestions mentioned are purely for academic study purposes for our trend trader club members only, and the author have personal interest and position in some of the examples mentioned. Any losses incurred if you were to trade base on the study examples above is sole your own responsibility. Do consult your dealer before taking any action