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Thursday, January 28, 2010

FBM KLCI continue to move south


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia extended its losses for the fourth consecutive day, after the central signaled it may raise interest rates sooner than economists forecast. Banking stocks led by CIMB suffered the greatest loss yesterday. The FBM KLCI dropped for a fourth day, losing 17.25 points or 1.3%, to close at 1,265.77, the steepest declines since August 17, 2009. Market breadth was negative with losers led gainers by 618 to 168 while 215 counters were unchanged. Turnover dropped to 1.082 billion shares worth RM1.827 billion.

Chart wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bearish long black candlestick which signifies continuation of the downward move. MACD has crossed below its signal line signifying short term correction. RSI(14) at 36 has turned bearish, and Stochastic at 19 is very weak and has just fell into the short term oversold zone. The conditions of the indicators are pointing to a bearish scenario and there might be further downside to come.

The benchmark FBM KLCI has turned bearish for the short term as it has broken the 30 and 60-day moving average (MA) support. The 5-day MA has just crossed below the 10-day MA indicating short term correction, nonetheless, the longer term uptrend is still intact as indicated by the long term 60 and 120-day MA that are still pointing northeast.

As the index move southward, the next level of support is expected at 1256 and 1248. The long term 100 and 120-day MA support lies at 1253 and 1240. To remain in the long term uptrend, the index should not break below the 1240 level.

Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1248 to 1280.

This week's expected range: 1270 – 1320
Today’s expected range: 1248 – 1280

Resistance: 1270, 1275, 1280
Support: 1248, 1255, 1260

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