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Thursday, June 17, 2010

FBM KLCI - back to above 1300


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended broadly higher yesterday in tandem with a regional market rally, taking cue from the strong performance of Wall Street overnight. The FBM KLCI rose by 4.76 points or 0.36%, to close at 1,303.13 on active buying interests in selected heavyweights and blue-chips. Gainers beat losers by 494 to 174 while 240 counters were unchanged. Volume rose to 662 million shares worth RM1.012 billion from 511 million shares worth RM891.308 million the day before.

The FBM KLCI opened with an up gap of 4.77 points at 1303.14, and rose to the intra-day high of 1312.10 before profit-taking activities sent it to close off-high at level equal to the opening, forming a gravestone Doji candlestick. This indicates the buyers were initially dominant in pushing the price up and later the sellers surfaced and pressed the price down.

As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the level above 1300 is a resistance zone where the up move of the key index will face lots of hurdles. It is indeed true that the key index hit onto the 40-day moving average (MA) at 1312 before it retrace from the intra-day high. By closing above the 1300 level and the 30-day MA, which is at 1303 now, the FBM KLCI has turned bullish for the short term. It was indeed mentioned in yesterday’s analysis that “if the key index is able to cross this level at 1304 successfully, it might trigger a run towards 1320”.

MACD continued to climb higher, albeit below the zero-line, indicating a continued increase in the upward momentum. RSI(14) at 52.46 has crossed above the 50 level, indicating the FBM KLCI has returned to the bullish zone, even though it is still in the mildly bullish area. On the other hand, Stochastic at 90.5 is in the short term overbought zone, and has hooked down slightly, indicating a potential correction is expected ahead.

With the FBM KLCI closing above the 1300 level, the short term trend of the benchmark index has turned up, while the medium term trend maybe in the sideways as indicated by the medium term 60-day MA which is still flat, and the longer term trend remained up.

Overnight, the Dow closed +4.69 points or +0.05% higher at 10,409.46. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1291 to 1321.

This week's expected range: 1250 – 1324
Today’s expected range: 1291 – 1321

Resistance: 1309, 1315, 1321
Support: 1291, 1297, 1300

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