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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

FBM KLCI - correction


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended lower yesterday as the heavyweights correct after the strong rebound on Monday, in line with the weaker performance of the regional markets. The benchmark FBM KLCI fell 5.07 points or 0.35% to close at 1459.64 after opening 1.30 points lower at 1463.41. Losers outnumbered gainers by 493 to 244 while 289 counters were unchanged. Volume fell to 976 million shares worth RM1.351 billion from 1.158 billion worth RM1.623 billion on Monday.

The FBM KLCI opened 1.30 points lower at 1463.41 following the weak performance of the Dow overnight. It rebounded to touched the intra-day high of 1465.47, but succumbed to the heavy profit-taking activities which sent the key index to the intra-day low of 1457.80 before rebounding to close off low at 1459.64. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bearish Harami candlestick, which is a reversal signal. Hence, the key index is likely to continue its consolidation with a downward bias.

MACD continued to slide lower, indicating a pick up in the downward momentum. RSI(14) at 62.7 has hooked down, nonetheless, is still in the mildly bullish zone. Stochastic at 58.6 has turned up slightly, but is still below its slow Stochastic, reflecting the rebound, however, the down cycle has not been reversed yet. Signals from the indicators are indicating a state of consolidation of the FBM KLCI with a downward bias.

The FBM KLCI is now below the immediate term 5 and 10-day MA, hence, is expected to continue moving lower, unless it can close above 1467, only then the downtrend can be reversed. For the near term, the FBM KLCI is expected to be sideways or range-bound with a downward bias, with immediate support at 1440 to 1450 while the overhead resistance zone remained at 1470 to 1480. The medium to longer term uptrend remained intact. The FBM KLCI might continue to track the performance of regional key indexes on the lack of fresh leads back home.

Overnight, the Dow rose +46.10 points or +0.43% higher to close at 10,858.14. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1448 to 1473.

This week's expected range: 1403 – 1514
Today’s expected range: 1448 – 1473

Resistance: 1464, 1469, 1473
Support: 1448, 1453, 1456

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