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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

FBM KLCI - bullish hammer candlestick formation


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended mixed yesterday, recouping early losses on late buying in recent decliners, in line with the general recovery at key regional markets. Late buying of Petronas Chemicals which was included into the 30-stock FBM KLCI yesterday and other heavyweights helped the benchmark index to close on a firmer note despite the weaker broader market. The FBM KLCI gained 3.90 points or 0.26% to close at 1495.95 after hitting an intra-day low of 1474.02. Losers outpaced gainers by 463 to 293 while 274 counters were unchanged. Turnover fell to 1.05 billion shares valued at RM1.93 billion from 1.57 billion shares valued at RM4.91 billion last Friday.

The FBM KLCI opened 3.48 points lower at 1488.57 and fell to the intra-day low of 1474.02 within the first 30 minutes, losing as much as 18.03 points at its worst, but recovered gradually on bargain-hunting activities. Strong buying interest on key heavyweights in late afternoon helped to push the key index to close at the high of the day. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bullish white hammer candlestick, which is a strong bottom reversal pattern. The key index has now tested the support at 1476 and rebounded strongly, indicating the medium term support was strong. The key index may continue its rebound to move higher today, but strong resistance is expected at 1500 to 1506.

MACD continued to slide lower, but at a slower pace, as shown by the shorter histogram, indicating a gradual reduction in the downward momentum of the key index. RSI (14) at 49.6 has hooked up, but still below the 50 mark, and hence is in the neutral to mildly bearish zone. However, Stochastic at 33.8 has continued to move higher, indicating a possible beginning of a short term up cycle. Signals from the indicators indicate that the downward momentum of the FBM KLCI is gradually waning but has not yet turned strong, and hence, the key index is likely to remain range-bound with an upward bias.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI remained down, as it is still below the 10 and 20-day moving averages (MA). However, it has closed above the 5-day MA yesterday, and this may exert some buying pressure to push the key index higher today. Nevertheless, strong overhead resistance is expected at 1500 to 1506, while immediate downside support zone is at 1488 to 1474. The longer term uptrend remained unspoiled.

Overnight, the Dow fell -39.51 points or -0.36% lower to close at 11,052.49. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1459 to 1518.

This week's expected range: 1442 – 1526
Today’s expected range: 1459 – 1518

Resistance: 1503, 1511, 1518
Support: 1459, 1466, 1481

Stock to watch: KEURO, AIRASIA, MUHIBAH, KNM

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