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Friday, April 15, 2011

FBM KLCI - lower on bearish sentiment


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended broadly lower yesterday on bearish sentiments due to regional discounts, among the influencing factors were a drastic downgrading of US second quarter GDP growth, inflation and issues pertaining to the Japan quake. Uncertainties over the upcoming Sarawak election had also put the market on the edge. The FBM KLCI fell 9.79 points or 0.64% to close at 1,525.80 after opening 2.26 points better at 1,537.85. Losers led gainers by 651 to 174 while 251 counters were unchanged. Turnover fell to 965.837 million shares worth RM1.532 billion from Wednesday’s 1.174 billion shares worth RM1.672 billion.

The FBM KLCI opened 2.26 points higher at 1,537.85 and surged to the intra-day high of 1,540.55 within the first five minutes, but profit-taking activities which surfaced immediately pressed the key index lower for the rest of the day with intermittent mild rebound to end the day at the lowest point of 1,525.80. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bearish dark-cloud-cover candlestick pattern, which is a reversal signal, and actually reflects the pull-back after a strong rebound on Wednesday. The key index is now closing right above the immediate support zone of 1,523 to 1,517 provided by a cluster of moving averages (MA). The support at 1,517 provided by the 120-day MA is critical, as a close below this level is likely to see the FBM KLCI sliding further southward to the psychological support level of 1,500.

MACD continued to slide lower after making a dead-cross, signifying a continued increase in downward momentum. RSI (14) has again fell below the 50-level to 47.8, indicating a mildly bearish condition of the key index. Stochastic continued to slide lower to 33, indicating a continuation of the down cycle and the weakening of market strength. Readings from the indicators indicate a bearish outlook for the FBM KLCI, and it is likely to continue with its current correction mode to further consolidate.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI is currently down, and the medium term trend remained sideways, while the long term uptrend is still intact. Immediate support zone is at 1,523 to 1,517 provided by a cluster of MAs, while the overhead resistance zone is at 1,530 to 1,540.

Overnight, the Dow rose another +14.16 points or +0.12% to close at 12,285.15. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,506 to 1,556.

This week's expected range: 1500 – 1581
Today’s expected range: 1506 – 1556

Resistance: 1536, 1546, 1556
Support: 1506, 1516, 1520

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