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Thursday, May 5, 2011

FBM KLCI - down on bearish sentiment


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed mostly lower yesterday as investors tracked weaknesses in regional markets. However, some late bargain hunting limited earlier losses in the market. The FBM KLCI lost 3.04 points or 0.20% to close at 1,528.43 after opening 6.01 points higher at 1,537.48. Losers led gainers by 653 to 163 while 264 counters were unchanged. Turnover increased to 1.202 billion shares worth RM1.510 billion from Tuesday’s 1.007 billion shares worth RM1.247 billion.

The FBM KLCI opened with an up gap of 6.01 points at 1,537.48 and touched the intra-day high of 1,547. 71 within minutes, then heavy profit-taking activities sent the key index to the intra-day low of 1,519.77, losing 11.7 points at its worst, before late afternoon bargain hunting activities lifted the key index to close only 3 points lower at 1,528.43. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bearish engulfing candlestick which indicates sellers were dominant for the day, and the key index had fallen back to its consolidation range as expected. With the appearance of bearish engulfing candlestick, the key index is likely to move further downward. The key index rebounded strongly after it hit the 60 and 120-day moving averages (MA), and if these medium and long term MAs are broken, then the index is likely to move lower to test the critical support at 1,514.

MACD has again turned southward, indicating the downward momentum is starting to pick up. RSI (14) continued to move lower to 49.4, back to the bearish bias neutral zone. Stochastic has continued to climb higher, but is tapering off, indicating a slow down in the upward strength and possible turn of the cycle. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is currently turning weak, and the consolidation process may prolong.

The current trend of the FBM KLCI remained sideways as it is currently closing below the short term MAs but is above the medium term MAs. The long term trend, however, remained up, but is likely to face challenges soon. Immediate overhead resistance zone is at 1,530 to 1,541, while the downside support zone is at 1,520 to 1,514. The support level at 1,514 is especially critical, as a break below this level will likely see the FBM KLCI moving towards the 1,500 level.

Overnight, the Dow fell -83.93 point or -0.66% to close at 12,723.58. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,501 to 1,547.

This week's expected range: 1503 – 1561
Today’s expected range: 1501 – 1547

Resistance: 1531, 1537, 1547
Support: 1501, 1511, 1519

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