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Thursday, May 17, 2012

FBM KLCI - the bears continue to rule


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended lower yesterday, for the fourth consecutive day, due to weak sentiment amid persistent worries over the global economy. Worries over the European debt crisis particularly that of Greece continued to weigh on market sentiment. The prolonged political crisis had pushed the country to the verge of bankruptcy and Greece could exit from the Euro-zone. The FBM KLCI ended 25.03 points or 1.6% lower at 1,536.04 – the lowest since end-February. Losers outpaced gainers by 822 to 97 while 215 counters were unchanged. Turnover rose to 1.33 billion shares, valued at RM2.06 billion, from 1.12 billion shares, worth RM1.64 billion, recorded on Tuesday.

The FBM KLCI opened with a down gap of 2.82 points at 1,558.25, the intra-day high, and slipped lower under heavy selling pressure with weak intermittent rebound to touch the intra-day low of 1,535.05 before settling the day at 1,536.04. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bearish long black candlestick which indicates the sellers were selling out in great fear, and the key index might continue to fall further today with an immediate downside support at 1,530 follow by 1,520.

MACD continued to slip lower and so is the histogram, indicating acceleration in the bearish downward momentum. RSI (14) plunged lower to 26.8 from 35.6 previously, indicating the benchmark index is currently in a very bearish state, and has just entered the short term oversold zone. Stochastic continued sliding lower to 10.3, indicating very weak short term market strength and has entered the oversold zone. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is currently bearish and weak. However, as the indicators already showed a short term oversold condition, some technical rebound might be expected ahead.

The short and medium term trend of the FBM KLCI remained down and bearish, and the long term trend has also just turned bearish as the benchmark index has just pierced through and closed below the 120-day SMA, with this, the FBM KLCI has entered a bear phase. However, the last defense of the long term trend is at the 1,510 to 1,520 zone represented by the cluster of long term moving averages, and a close below the 1,510-point level would officially mean the FBM KLCI become long term bearish.

Overnight, the Dow fell -33.45 points or -0.26% to close at 12,598.55. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,504 to 1,582.
 
This week's expected range: 1556 – 1610
Today’s expected range: 1504 – 1582

Resistance: 1552, 1567, 1582
Support: 1504, 1519, 1527

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