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Friday, July 20, 2012

FBM KLCI - lower on profit-taking after hitting fresh high


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed mixed yesterday with the FBM KLCI closed slightly lower on profit taking after the recent hike. At close, the key market barometer slipped 0.4 of a point to 1,644.6 after opening 0.46 of a point higher at 1,645.6, and it hit a new record intra-day high of 1,647.94. Advancers led decliners by 389 to 378 while 357 counters closed unchanged. Total volume declined to 1.109 billion shares valued at RM1.591 billion from Wednesday’s 1.13 billion shares, valued at RM1.46 billion.

Taking cue from the strong performance of Wall Street overnight, the FBM KLCI opened 0.46 point higher at 1,645.46 and rallied to a new record intra-day high of 1,647.94 within the first thirty minutes of trading, thereafter, heavy profit-taking activity set in and pressed the key index lower to end near the intra-day low. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bearish black inverted hammer candlestick, which is a top reversal candlestick formation when it occurred at a high level, and hence, the FBM KLCI is likely to take a breather to consolidate itself after charting new high continuously for the past few sessions. Immediate overhead resistance zone is at 1,648 to 1,650 while the downside support zone is at 1,640 to 1,632.

MACD was higher but its histogram turned slightly shorter, indicating a slow down in the upward momentum, and nevertheless, the momentum is still bullish. RSI (14) hooked downward slightly to 75.7 from 76.1 previously, reflecting the mild profit-taking activity and the short term relative strength is still in the very bullish state. Stochastic also hooked downward to 91.6 but is still above the slow stochastic line, reflecting the mild pullback in the key index. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is experiencing a pullback after the recent hike, and is likely to consolidate itself.

The broad trend of the FBM KLCI remained up and bullish, and the mild pullback yesterday is viewed as a healthy correction after many days of scaling new high, and the correction is expected to be shallow and provide opportunities to buy into weakness for quality shares. The benchmark index is likely to consolidate as it is coming to the weekend. However, as the underlying trend is still strong, the benchmark index is expected to re-test the recent high after the correction is over, and our short term target of 1,661 stay.

Overnight, the Dow rose +34.66 points or +0.27% to close at 12,943.36. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,639 to 1,652.

This week's expected range: 1600 – 1650
Today’s expected range: 1639 – 1652

Resistance: 1647, 1650, 1652
Support: 1639, 1641, 1643

Stocks to watch: HIBISCS, SKPETRO,  PERDANA, MNRB, UOADEV, SCOMIMR

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