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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

FBM KLCI - short term correction


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended broadly lower yesterday in line with losses in regional markets, the Dow’s sharp loss of 125 points last Friday further damped market sentiments. The FBM KLCI opened 3.04 points lower at 1,329.73 and traded to the intra-day low of 1321.25 before bargain hunting activities lift the key index off-low to close 6.10 points or 0.46% lower at 1326.67. Market breadth was negative through the day with losers outpaced gainers by 622 to 134 while 219 counters were unchanged. Volume increased slightly to 812 million shares worth RM1.210 billion.

Chart wise, the FBM KLCI formed a hammer candlestick which indicates a temporary bottom of the index at 1321. The benchmark index has for the short term turn downtrend, but has for the time being found support at the 30-day moving average (MA). The gap at 1329 to 1332 formed yesterday would post as an overhead resistance to the key index.

MACD continued to move lower indicating the pickup in downward momentum. Nonetheless, it is still above the zero level, hence the southward move is just a short term correction to the underlying main uptrend. RSI(14) at 53 has moved into the neutral zone. Stochastic at 53.9 also moved sharply lower, indicating the short term down cycle is still in place.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI has turned southward as the correction continues. However, its medium and long term trend still remained up.
The FBM KLCI found its immediate support at the 1321 level provided by the 30-day MA. This is an important level to watch, if the key index close below this level, then it might move further southward to test the lower support at 1308 and the psychological support level at 1300.

With the formation of a hammer candlestick, the FBM KLCI might stage a technical rebound; however, the 1330 to 1340 level would now post as a strong overhead resistance zone to the rebound.

Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1314 to 1338.

This week's expected range: 1308 – 1358
Today’s expected range: 1314 – 1338

Resistance: 1330, 1334, 1338
Support: 1314, 1317, 1322

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