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Thursday, December 2, 2010

FBM KLCI - short term bearish, medium term trend at test


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed mixed yesterday amid lack of strong leads and investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the release of the US employment and retail sales data last night. Investor sentiment remained fragile due to concerns over interest increases in China and Europe's debt crisis. Mild buying in selected blue-chips pushed the benchmark FBM KLCI back into positive territory. The FBM KLCI gained 0.19 point or 0.01% to close at 1485.42 after opening 2.54 points lower at 1482.69. Losers led gainers by 366 to 364 while 296 counters were unchanged. Total volume fell to 886 million shares valued at RM1.591 billion from Tuesday’s 1.02 billion shares valued at RM2.06 billion.

The FBM KLCI opened 2.54 points lower at 1482.69 and fell to the intra-day low of 1477.57 in early morning trade, and rebounded to 1481.27 by noon. Buying interest surfaced in the afternoon session and pushed the key index to the intra-day high of 1487.67 before profit-taking trimmed gains to close off high at 1485.42. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a white spinning-top candlestick with long lower shadow, which indicates the bear was initially stronger in pushing the key index down, but later, the bull fights back and pushed the key index back to the positive territory. The FBM KLCI has tested the support at 1480 and rebounded off it and is now closing right above the 60-day moving average (MA) which is at 1483.73. This indicates the medium term MA is providing good support to the index.

MACD continued to slide lower and has just crossed the zero line which indicates the momentum has turned bearish and an end to the short term bull trend. RSI (14) at 43.3 is flat and continued to stay in the mildly bearish zone. Stochastic is at 26.3 and continued to slide lower, indicating weak market strength. Readings from the indicators indicates that the FBM KLCI might continue its consolidation and remained range-bound.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI remained bearish or down as it continues to stay below the short term MAs. The medium term trend is at test now as the key index has penetrated the 60-day MA and rebounded off it. If the FBM KLCI failed to stay above the 60-day MA, then it might continue to slide lower towards the 1465 support area. The long term uptrend, however, remain intact. With the overall trading volume sliding below the 1 billion shares mark, the market is expected to remain quiet.

Overnight, the Dow rose +249.76 points or +2.27% higher to close at 11,255.78. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1469 to 1498.

This week's expected range: 1442 – 1526
Today’s expected range: 1469 – 1498

Resistance: 1489, 1494, 1498
Support: 1469, 1473, 1479

Stock to watch: MHB, SAPCRES

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