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Thursday, April 14, 2011

FBM KLCI - a strong rebound


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia recoup two consecutive days of losses yesterday on bargain-hunting led by finance stocks and blue-chips such as PCHEM and BAT, and closed higher with the benchmark FBM KLCI finishing 9.67 points or 0.63% higher at 1,535.59 after opening 1.11 points easier at 1,524.81. Advancers outnumbered decliners by 610 to 204 with 265 counters unchanged. Advancers outnumbered decliners 610 to 204 with 265 counters unchanged. Turnover was higher at 1.174 billion shares worth RM1.672 billion from the 1.088 billion shares worth RM1.528 billion registered on Tuesday.

Taking cue from the weak performance of Wall Street overnight, the FBM KLCI opened 1.11 points lower at 1,524.81 and plunged to the intra-day low of 1,517.84 in first half of the morning session, and it rebounded strongly on bargain-hunting of selected blue-chips and rally to the intra-day high of 1,539.70 before pulling back on profit-taking to close off high at 1,535.59. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bullish piercing-line candlestick which is a bottom reversal candle pattern. With the strong momentum, the key index is likely to continue its upward move today. The index will likely to meet strong resistance at 1,540 to 1,550 areas.

MACD continued to slide lower and has just made a dead-crossed over its signal line, which is a sell signal, and indicates correction to the uptrend as MACD line is still in the positive zone. RSI (14) has hooked up to 52.6, and is back to the bullish neutral zone. Stochastic continued to move lower to 46.7, indicating a continuation of the down cycle and weakening of the market strength. Mixed signals from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is likely to go into a sideways consolidation with a downward bias.

The FBM KLCI found strong support from the 120-day moving average (MA) when it rebounded off it and triggered a rally. The immediate support zone at 1,523 to 1,517 formed of a cluster of medium to long term MAs is critical, as a break below the 1,517 level will see the key index slides toward the 1,500 level. The short term trend of the FBM KLCI is currently down, while the medium term trend remained sideways, and the long term trend is still up.

Overnight, the Dow rose +7.41 points or +0.06% to close at 12,270.99. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,500 to 1,562.

This week's expected range: 1500 – 1581
Today’s expected range: 1500 – 1562

Resistance: 1545, 1553, 1565
Support: 1500, 1509, 1522

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