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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

FBM KLCI - bucking regional trend


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended mixed yesterday amid gains in selected blue-chips which bucked regional and global trends where markets were generally down following the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. The FBM KLCI rose 11.56 points or 0.79% higher to close at 1,477.78. It had opened 0.56 of a point higher at 1,466.78 from last Friday’s closing. Losers led gainers by 445 to 315 while 283 counters were unchanged. Turnover was lower at 1.6 billion shares worth RM1.03 billion from 1.8 billion shares worth RM1.33 billion on last Friday.

The FBM KLCI opened 0.56 point higher at 1,466.78 and slid lower to the intra-day low of 1,463.27 at midday. The key index rebounded in the afternoon session on buying of selected blue-chips and rose to close at the highest point of the day. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bullish white candlestick which indicated a continuation of the uptrend following the bottom reversal that happened on last Thursday. The FBM KLCI is likely to continue climbing higher today, but the resistance zone at 1,480 to 1,493 may post as a barrier to the up move with the gap at 1,485 being the main hurdle, as this level also coincided with the 360-day SMA.

MACD has turned upward, indicating a reversal of the previous downtrend. However, it was still below the signal-line, and a stronger up move is needed to generate a golden-cross. RSI (14) was higher at 55.9, indicating an improvement in the relative strength from neutral to mildly bullish. Stochastic has made a hooked up to 49.3, but was still below the slow stochastic line, and a cross above the slow stochastic line would signaled that the short term corrective down cycle is over. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is showing some signs of reversal, and a stronger up move is required to confirm that the recent correction is over otherwise it may continue to stay in a sideways consolidation mode.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI has turned up as the key index is now closing above all the short term moving averages. The medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is sideways with a bearish bias. Immediate overhead resistance zone is at 1,480 to 1, 507, while the immediate downside support zone is at 1,463 to 1,450. Overnight, the Dow fell -100.13 points or -0.84% to close at 11,766.26, and today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,453 to 1,493.

This week's expected range: 1425 – 1501
Today’s expected range: 1453 – 1493

Resistance: 1483, 1488, 1493
Support: 1453, 1458, 1468

Stock to watch: KEURO

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