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Friday, December 23, 2011

FBM KLCI - gradually turning bullish


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended mixed yesterday with the benchmark FBM KLCI closed firmer bolstered by regional funds taking advantage of the local market’s defensiveness, and there was also some cosmetic dressing ahead of the closing of the year. The FBM KLCI closed 6.48 points or 0.44% higher at 1,491.46. The general market saw losers overwhelmed gainers by 455 to 290 while 336 counters closed unchanged. Turnover was lower with 1.204 billion shares worth RM1.017 billion changed hands compared with 1.655 billion shares worth RM1.321 million on Wednesday.

The FBM KLCI opened 0.38 point lower at 1,484.60 and was moving in a narrow range around the previous day’s close. Buying interest started to surface in the afternoon session which pushed the key index higher gradually to close near the high of the day. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bullish white candlestick which is a continuation of the up move on Wednesday, and the key index is likely to continue its uptrend today. Immediate resistance zone is seen at 1,493 to 1,502, if the key index is able to break through this resistance zone successfully, then the whole trend would turn bullish.

MACD continued to climb higher after making the golden-cross, indicating a pick up in the index’s momentum. RSI (14) was higher at 59.8, and is approaching the bullish zone. Stochastic was also higher at 67, indicating an improvement of the market strength and continuation of the short term up cycle. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is gradually turning bullish, and hence may continue the current upward trend to move higher.

The short and medium term trend of the FBM KLCI has turned up, while the longer term trend is still basically sideways. Nonetheless, the FBM KLCI has closed above the 120 and 360-day SMA, giving out a first sign of the long term trend turning bullish. The key index is, however, still capped on top by the cluster of 200, 240 and 300-day long term SMA which form the strong overhead resistance zone at 1,501 to 1,507. If the FBM KLCI is able to breakthrough this resistance zone, then it would turn fully bullish and may move to a higher level.

Overnight, the Dow rose +61.91 points or +0.51% to close at 12,169.65, and today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,476 to 1,501.

This week's expected range: 1425 – 1501
Today’s expected range: 1476 – 1501

Resistance: 1495, 1498, 1501
Support: 1476, 1479, 1485

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