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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

FBM KLCI - higher but with signs of possible reversal


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed firmer yesterday as investors took cue from the uptrend on regional bourses. The favourable outcome of the general election in Greece, which saw pro-bailout political parties winning an adequate number of parliamentary seats to form a new government, served as a positive impetus for regional equity markets. The FBM KLCI gained 3.5 points or 0.22% to close at 1,582.73 after hitting an intra-day high of 1,588.54. Gainers thumped losers by 500 to 236 while 281 counters were unchanged. Turnover softened to 941.093 million shares worth RM1.637 billion from the 979.94 million units, valued at RM2.418 billion posted on Friday.

Taking cue from the favourable result of the Greece election, the FBM KLCI opened with an up gap of 4.12 points at 1,583.35 and climbed to the intra-day high of 1,588.54 within the first ten minutes of trading. This was followed by heavy profit-taking which pressed the key index lower and traded in a narrow range; it hit the intra-day low of 1,582.25 before rebounding slightly to close off low. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a black inverted hammer candlestick or commonly known as a shooting star candlestick formation, which is a top reversal candle pattern. It indicated heavy profit-taking activity after an initial up move, and hence the FBM KLCI is likely to fall further to close the up gap and consolidate itself today. Immediate support zone is at 1,582 to 1,579 while the overhead resistance zone is at 1,588 to 1,591.

MACD climbed higher, and so is the histogram, indicating an increased in the upward momentum. RSI (14) was higher at 57.1, indicating a continued improvement in the short term relative strength in the mildly bullish zone. Stochastic was however marginally lower at 80.1 from 80.5 previously, indicating an inherent weakness is possibly developing and a correction might be expected ahead. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is gradually gaining its upward momentum but signs are there that it may undergo a correction.

The trend of the FBM KLCI has turned up as it is now closing above all the short, medium and long term moving averages. However, the key index must close above the 1,591-point level in order for it to gain further strength to rally higher. Otherwise, it may continue to move sideways range-bound. With the overall volume improving, the market is likely to see some rotational play on the second and third liners.

Overnight, the Dow fell -25.35 points or -0.20% to close at 12,741.82. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,574 to 1,595.
 
This week's expected range: 1561 – 1594
Today’s expected range: 1574 – 1595

Resistance: 1587, 1591, 1595
Support: 1574, 1578, 1580

Stocks to watch: TIMECOM, DRBHCOM, MALTON, L&G, MRCB

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